We are now just over three months away from 2024, and into the final three weeks of Q3.
This quarter, the quarter-end expiry on 29 Sep falls on virtually the last trading day of the month.
Regular readers will know we have been trading this quarter to two blueprints: our supermoon cycle and our Elliot Wave count.
Based on both blueprints, we expect an imminent final decline to close out the quarter at the lows (Chart below).
Chart 1
The crypto and macro events calendar also lines up with this view, with a concentration of upcoming bearish events that only turn neutral from mid-October onwards.
This includes a likely higher-than-expected CPI tomorrow and a more-hawkish-than-expected FOMC next week, plus FTX token asset sales, and Mt. Gox over the next month to cap things off.
Hence while our theory implies a bottom soon after the supermoon early next month, we think the true bottom will come in mid-late October when the bad news cycle has run its course.
We nonetheless remain bullish following that, into year-end and Q1 next year.
Look out next month for our next edition of Just Crypto #7: Schrödinger’s Coin, where we look back and break down the evolution of Bitcoin’s role in markets since its Genesis, as we countdown to the Genesis block’s 15th year anniversary on 3 Jan 2024.
